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Lebanon Election Deal Shows Gradual Political Progress

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/LONDON, June 26 (Fitch) The agreement on a new electoral law for Lebanon avoids a political crisis, but highlights the limitations of the country’s sectarian based political system, Fitch Ratings says. Lebanon’s parliament approved the new cheap moncler law on 16 June 2017, following cabinet approval of a cross party agreement to adopt proportional representation and reduce the number of electoral districts. Elections had been due by 20 June, but parliament will now be extended again while preparations are moncler outlets uk made for a vote under the new system in May 2018. Changing the electoral law to facilitate elections is another moncler coats sale step towards improving political effectiveness, following the election of Michel Aoun as president womens moncler jackets last October after more than two years without a president, and the formation of a new government, drawn from across the political spectrum, in December. It has averted an impending political crisis, as Aoun had effectively set a 20 June deadline, Discount Moncler Coats and illustrates the ability of the main political factions in Lebanon to achieve compromises, albeit slowly and at Moncler Factory Outlet the last minute. Maintaining this modest political momentum could further improve the prospects for policy moncler outlet mall making. The current government has moncler jackets cheap largely been occupied with electoral law discussions, but it has also reinvigorated the oil and gas licensing process and agreed on a 2017 Budget, cheap moncler coats for women although this has not yet been approved by parliament. But repeated delays in the political Cheap Moncler process the 2018 elections will be the first since 2009 and the new budget is the first state moncler coats budget approved by a cabinet for 12 years illustrate the constraints of Lebanon’s sectarian political system, which have been made worse by the Syrian civil war. The new electoral law is unlikely to significantly change this system. Government formation after next year’s election may once again be a drawn out process. High and persistent political and security risks are reflected in Lebanon’s low sovereign rating, affirmed at ‘B ‘/Stable in February 2017, alongside high public debt and discount moncler jackets anaemic economic growth. Political progress since November appears to have boosted the Lebanese diaspora’s confidence in the country’s economy. Deposit growth was 8.2% yoy in April 2017, sufficient to fund moncler jacket outlet government borrowing, which depends on the channelling of deposits and remittances via the financial system, and ensure moderate credit growth to the private sector. Foreign exchange deposits were 11% cheap moncler jackets outlet higher than moncler jackets for women a year earlier, and gross foreign exchange reserves were 7.6% moncler jacket online higher, although they had declined from February and March levels. Deposit growth may have been boosted by Aoun’s election moncler outlet kids and the formation of a government, having dropped to less than 5% yoy for much of 1H16. However, reserves and deposits had also been boosted by a financial engineering operation by Banque du Liban (BdL), which sold eurobond holdings and foreign exchange denominated certificates of deposit (CD), worth around moncler jackets outlet online USD13 billion to banks over several months last year. At the same time, BdL offered to discount at a premium equivalent amounts of Lebanese pound moncler outlet usa T bills and CDs held by banks. The operation buoyed growth in non resident deposits, as banks offered attractive conditions for foreign exchange deposits to participate in BdL’s operation. The risk is that as the effect of this operation wanes, deposit growth will again come under pressure. Recent political developments can help sustain positive sentiment, but rising public debt, up 8.6% yoy in March 2017, means that Lebanon remains vulnerable to a recurrence of political paralysis that moncler coats cheap dents confidence and deposit and remittance flows. Tougher US sanctions against Hizbollah could also directly or indirectly affect foreign flows into Lebanon and its banking sector, although these have not yet moncler chicago been formally proposed as a bill. The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings. Related Research Lebanhere ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE moncler outlet SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY moncler outlet ny FOLLOWING THIS LINK: here. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH’S Official Moncler Outlet CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. DIRECTORS AND SHAREHOLDERS RELEVANT INTERESTS ARE AVAILABLE here. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1 800 753 4824, (212) 908 0500. Fax: (212) 480 4435. moncler outlet location Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. Fitch buy moncler jackets toronto conducts moncler jackets on sale a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that moncler jackets toronto information from moncler coats for kids independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre existing third party verifications such as audit reports, agreed upon procedures moncler jackets canada letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and moncler coats for women complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be moncler outlet uk affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed. The information in this report is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a moncler jackets kids recipient of the moncler outlet canada report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion moncler outlet store and reports made by moncler coats for men Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the moncler coats outlet suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax https://www.mymoncleroutlet.com exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or moncler jackets mens insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use moncler coats for cheap its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular moncler outlets usa jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001.

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